The population of Louisville Metro is arguable
Part 1: It's hard to rank Louisville by the numbers.
An interesting editorial appeared in the Courier-Journal (C-J) on the last day of 2024. Its purpose was to rally optimism for the new year in respect to Louisville Metro’s economic prospects.
The article seems to be accessible to all, not just C-J subscribers. Perhaps you will read it. The authors, John Hollenbach and Greg Oakley are Louisville leaders in real estate and development and Mr. Hollenbach serves on the Louisville Economic Development Alliance (LEDA) board. LEDA is a public-private partnership that was formed under Mayor Greenberg in 2024 to lead economic development in Louisville.
Nothing in this post is meant to disparage the authors who are reputable businessmen to my knowledge. The goal is to raise awareness about Louisville’s varying population statistics and how this may affect our economic development, which in turn is affected by public spending for behemoth government programs that may not be needed, based on our population.
The OpEd’s first link is to The Kirkland Company’s Market Overview report in August 2023 for Louisville. The report references Site Selection (SS) magazine’s mention of Louisville as a Top US Metro for Economic Development.
Various websites that mention the ‘Mac Conway Award for Excellence in Economic Development’ are cited. The award memorializes the founder of Conway Data Inc., the 'world’s largest full-service economic development/investment promotion company'.
All this to say— The OpEd points to ‘known quantities’ for its optimism. However, when drilling down by way of internet research, we see that Louisville’s leaders have work to do if Louisville is to become an economic development hotspot. So do our state leaders.
In the January 2025 SS online magazine, an overview ranks each state in terms of economic development. Kentucky is nowhere near the lead, except in ‘industrial power cost per kWh’— where we’re number 6.
We are cited for low population growth, have slipped in the ‘Business Tax Climate’ ranking, and we’re number 45 in the Workers’ Compensation Premium Rate. Our state credit rating is ‘fair to middlin’ and our GDP is, too, at No. 29 in the U.S. Perhaps the recent Pension Fund settlement will improve this rating.
Now, let’s evaluate the proof offered in the OpEd that Louisville Metro’s outlook for economic development is bright. The Mac Conway Award writeup credits the Louisville Metro Department of Economic Development (DED) and Greater Louisville Inc., both which now work with LEDA, for Louisville’s economic growth.
The writeup states that the Louisville Metro DED assists companies with Kentucky’s jobs incentive programs, local and state tax increment financing, tax-based incentives, workforce development and training incentives, property redevelopment incentives, and sustainability incentives.
Looks like all this help came from us taxpayers.
Next, a number of ‘significant projects’ are noted as the basis for the Award.
What can we say to these significant projects but, “You’re welcome.” ?
This post includes the business location for each project to illustrate that Louisville Metro claims its “Metropolitan Statistical Area” (MSA) when it comes to bragging about its economic development. Its MSA is delineated here and takes in 14 counties. Also, GLI states on its website that it represents “a 15-county (sic) bi-state region in Kentucky and Southern Indiana.”
Thai Summit Kentucky Corporation | Bardstown, KY | Nelson Co.
Stellar Snacks | west Louisville | Jefferson Co.
Four Roses Distillery | Lawrenceburg, KY | Anderson Co. (Warehouse and bottling facility are in Nelson Co.; distillery and visitors’ center are in Anderson Co.)
Log Still Distilling | Gethsemane, KY | Nelson Co.
Isopure Corp. | Jeffersontown, KY | Jefferson Co.
Piston Automotive | Jeffersontown, KY | Jefferson Co.
Paccar Parts | south Louisville | Jefferson Co.
Unifirst Corporation | Jeffersontown, KY | Jefferson Co.
Fort Dearborn Company | south Louisville | Jefferson Co.
The OpEd says that Louisville has seen unprecedented growth over the past decades. The census figures for 2000 are 693,604 for Jefferson Co. By 2010 we grew to 741,096 and by 2020 we were at 782,969. A population estimate for 2024 is 771K but for 2023 the figure was 772,144. We will assume that the 771K includes all of Metro Louisville’s small cities, such as Jeffersontown with an estimated 28,716 for 2025. The Louisville/Jefferson County figure is 622,981.
Using the 2023 figure, our growth rate since 2010 is about 5.6% and it is about 10.5% since 2000. So, the past decade has seen slower growth. However, if we use the Louisville-Jefferson Co KY-IN MSA (Metro Statistical Area) population for 2023 of 1,365,557, then our growth rate since 2000 is nearly 50%, in relation to our Jefferson Co. census data. It’s confusing, but the moral of this story is, use MSA statistics when trying to attract new business to Louisville.
It is hard to attract new business to any city, since all offer tax subsidies and incentives for newcomers. How can Louisville best sell itself? We will look at that in Part 2, tomorrow. And we will ask: If Louisville is declining in population, why do we need more ‘affordable housing’?